Global Third-Largest Tin Mine Bisie Halts Operations, Raising Market Supply Concerns; LME Tin Surges, SHFE Tin Hits Limit-Up, Spot Market Stalls [SMM Newsflash]

SMM March 14:

The market's concerns over supply disruptions intensified following the news that Alphamin Resources Corp had suspended mining operations at the Bisie tin mine in Walikale, North Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Bulls continued to push prices higher, and after LME and SHFE tin closed the night session with gains of 8.34% and 9.15%, respectively, this upward trend extended into the morning session on March 14. As of 9:24 a.m. on March 14, LME tin was up 2.51%, quoted at $36,800/mt, while SHFE tin hit the upper limit, quoted at 291,510 yuan/mt.

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News

Alphamin Suspends Operations at Bisie Tin Mine in Eastern DRC

On March 13, 2025, Alphamin Resources, the operator of the Bisie mine, announced the temporary suspension of operations at its eastern DRC mine.

In a statement, the company said: "Due to the recent advance of rebel armed groups toward the area where the mine is located, the company has decided to suspend operations."

Currently, the company is evacuating all mining personnel, leaving only a minimal number of essential staff to handle maintenance, security, and basic management of the mine.

Alphamin expressed that it is "encouraged" by the upcoming peace talks scheduled to take place in Angola next week and hopes the situation will de-escalate.

Additionally, the company has engaged a US firm to lobby the US government for diplomatic intervention regarding the current security threats.

Bisie is the world's third-largest tin mine, with tin concentrate production reaching 17,300 mt (metal content) in 2024, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin mine supply.

Click to view the full announcement: 》【Breaking】Alphamin Suspends Operations at Bisie Tin Mine in Eastern DRC

Spot Market

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Regarding tin spot prices: According to SMM quotes, the SMM #1 tin spot price on March 14 was 287,000-290,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 288,500 yuan/mt, up 23,200 yuan/mt or 8.74% from the previous trading day. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated upward, driven by a warmer macro sentiment. The suspension of operations at the world's third-largest tin mine, Bisie, has further heightened concerns over supply disruptions, leading to a sharp surge in tin prices. However, the significant price increase may suppress downstream purchasing activities.

Market Transactions: On March 14, as tin prices soared, spot market transactions came to a standstill. Downstream and end-user enterprises are expected to remain on the sidelines, with most companies focusing on margin calls and waiting for price clarity. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the progress of armed conflicts in DRC, the timeline for Bisie tin mine's production resumption, the recovery progress in Wa State, and the impact of US tariff policies on the market.

Institutional Comments

Everbright Futures Research Report: Alphamin's sudden announcement last night to suspend production at its Bisie tin mine in DRC due to escalating conflicts with Rwanda caused synchronized price increases in both domestic and overseas markets during the night session. The Bisie mine is the largest tin mine in DRC, with a production of approximately 17,000 mt (metal content) in 2024 and a planned production of around 20,000 mt (metal content) in 2025. This single mine accounts for about 7% of global tin mine supply. The suspension exacerbates the already tight tin supply landscape caused by the production halt in Wa State. Domestic processing fees may continue to decline significantly, exposing supply vulnerabilities. In the medium term, tin prices are expected to remain strong, and existing long positions can still be held. The suspension of Bisie provides opportunities for arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and domestic calendar spread arbitrage can continue to be held or built on dips.

Nanhua Futures Research Report: The SHFE tin index continued to hover at high levels on Thursday, closing at 263,000 yuan/mt, with a significant increase during the night session. [Alphamin's Bisie tin mine in DRC temporarily halts production. The Bisie mine's total tin production in 2024 was 17,324 mt (metal content), with a daily average production of approximately 47.5 mt. If the suspension lasts for one month (30 days), it is expected to reduce tin supply by approximately 1,425 mt, accounting for 0.5% of global annual production (approximately 280,000 mt in 2023). Risk management measures should be implemented.

Jinyuan Futures: Overall, the escalation of armed conflicts in DRC prompted Alphamin to suddenly announce the suspension of Bisie mine operations, further exacerbating the tight tin supply situation. Tin prices surged significantly overnight in both domestic and overseas markets. As the world's third-largest tin mine, Bisie's suspension has a substantial impact, and the timeline for production resumption remains highly uncertain. Market sentiment may continue to ferment, but the current price increase is already significant, posing high risks for chasing the rally. Cautious operations are advised, while continuing to monitor the recovery progress in Wa State and downstream purchasing activities.

Guotou Futures: The tense situation in M23 in northeastern DRC prompted Canada's Alphamin to suspend production at the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province. The mine's 2024 production exceeded 17,000 mt and was expected to continue contributing incremental supply this year. The exact suspension duration is unclear, but the DRC government may negotiate with M23 on March 18. A one-month suspension could reduce supply by approximately 1,500 mt. Tin prices reacted sharply to this event in the short term, compounded by the DRC government's attempt to seek military support from the US, which could lead to prolonged instability in the region's non-ferrous metal resources. Additionally, the severance of diplomatic ties between DRC and Rwanda may affect the country's eastward maritime exports. The short-term price surge has surpassed the impact of Wa State's production suspension and rectification. Although DRC has recently become China's largest refined tin import source, supply outside this region remains stable. Tin prices are unlikely to sustain at 290,000-295,000 yuan/mt, with a high risk of short-term rational pullbacks. Strategies such as selling call options at high levels or locking in sales at the mine end are recommended.

CITIC Securities Research Report: The escalation of local conflicts in DRC led Alphamin Resources to announce the suspension of mining operations at the Bisie tin mine. The mine's 2024 production accounted for approximately 6% of global tin mine supply. If the suspension continues until year-end, tin supply in 2025 could decrease by 14,000 mt. The recovery progress of Myanmar's tin mines has fallen short of expectations, with formal production expected to resume in H2 2025. CITIC Securities estimates that Myanmar's annual tin supply may increase by 10,000 mt YoY. Considering the Bisie mine suspension and Myanmar's slower-than-expected recovery, CITIC Securities predicts that the tin supply deficit will further widen in 2025, with tin prices likely to exceed 300,000 yuan/mt.